CPI vs. PCE: Why the Fed Watches a Different Inflation Number Than the One in Your Headlines
CPI is the inflation number in your headlines; PCE is the one the Fed targets. Learn why they differ, which…
Category: Monetary Policy
What a Fed Rate Hike Really Means for Your Savings, Debts and Mortgage
The Fed sits at 3.75%-4.00% ahead of its October 28 decision. See how a hike reaches your savings, credit cards…
The Neutral Rate Explained: Why r-star Is the Fed’s Invisible North Star
The neutral rate, or r-star, is the policy rate that neither stimulates nor restrains growth. It cannot be observed, yet…
September CPI Hits 3.7%: Gasoline Drives Inflation, Fed Hike Odds Jump
US inflation rose to 3.7% in September as gasoline surged 9.1%, and core prices topped forecasts. Here is what the…
Inside the Fed’s Internal Split: Waller’s Case for Patience vs. Warsh’s Hawkish Call
Weeks before the Fed's hike, Governor Waller publicly signaled he wanted to hold rates steady — directly contrasting with Chair…
The Fed’s Real Message Wasn’t the Hike — It Was the Dot Plot
The Fed's 25bp hike was expected — the real signal was the dot plot, where 16 of 18 officials now…
The Fed’s September Meeting Begins Today: Hike Odds Climb Past 85%
The Fed's September meeting begins today, with markets now pricing 85-92% odds of the first rate hike since 2023. Here's…
Treasury Yields Hit Multi-Year Highs: What’s Driving the Global Bond Sell-Off
The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2023, and the 30-year is at a nearly two-decade high. Here's…
The Dollar’s Wild 2026: From a Four-Year Low to a September Rebound
The dollar crashed to a four-year low in January 2026, then rebounded in September on hot jobs data. Here's what's…
August 2026 Jobs Report: What a “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” Labor Market Means for the Fed
The August 2026 jobs report lands the same day the Fed weighs its next rate move. Here's what the lead-up…