Updated October 13, 2026
Quick Answer
The third-quarter earnings season opens today, Tuesday, October 13, as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report before the market opens. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on Wednesday, October 14. Analysts broadly expect trading revenue to cool from a record second quarter, dealmaking to be uneven, and credit to stay calm. The bigger question is whether higher interest rates help or hurt bank profits now that the Fed has raised rates again. Consensus figures differ by data provider, so treat every estimate below as approximate.
The Earnings Calendar
According to preview coverage published October 12, the big banks report on a staggered schedule:
- Tuesday, October 13 (before the open): JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo at roughly 7:00 a.m. ET, Goldman Sachs at about 7:30 a.m., and Citigroup at about 8:00 a.m.
- Wednesday, October 14: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock (an asset manager rather than a bank).
- Thursday, October 15: PNC, Charles Schwab, BNY Mellon and U.S. Bancorp, per the FXEmpire calendar.
- Friday, October 16: Truist, M&T Bank, Regions and Citizens Financial.
The timing matters because the September Consumer Price Index is due Wednesday, with producer prices on Thursday. Futures were reportedly steady heading into the week as traders waited on both the bank results and the inflation data.
What Wall Street Expects
Consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates vary by source. Using figures reported as of October 12 (WSJ and FXEmpire data cited in market previews), the rough picture looks like this:
- JPMorgan Chase: about $5.82 to $5.93 per share, on revenue of roughly $50.6 billion to $51.3 billion.
- Goldman Sachs: about $12.86 to $13.04 on most trackers, though one provider shows a much higher range, so the spread is unusually wide. Revenue estimates sit near $16.9 billion to $17.6 billion.
- Wells Fargo: about $1.84 to $1.85 per share, on revenue near $22.4 billion.
- Citigroup: about $2.65 to $2.68 per share, on revenue near $23.7 billion.
- Bank of America and Morgan Stanley (Wednesday): about $1.10 and $2.93 per share respectively, according to FXEmpire.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Visible Alpha, in a note dated October 9, projects year-over-year revenue growth of about 9.6% at JPMorgan, 7.3% at Citi, 4.7% at Bank of America and 3.8% at Wells Fargo. It projects net interest income (NII) growth of roughly 11% at Citi, 7.7% at Bank of America and 5.5% at Wells Fargo. These are forecasts, not results.
Five Things to Watch
1. Trading revenue after a record quarter
The Financial Times, cited in one preview, put expected third-quarter trading revenue across the five big investment banks (JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America) at roughly $38 billion, compared with a record of about $47 billion in the second quarter. That would be a sequential drop of around 19%, though still higher than a year earlier. Goldman has described equities trading as strong and fixed income as softer, so its mix will be closely read.
2. Net interest income and the rate squeeze
Higher rates can lift what banks earn on loans, but they also raise what banks pay depositors and can deepen unrealized losses on bond portfolios. The 10-year Treasury yield was reported at about 5.34% on October 1 and near 5.24% last Friday, levels that were last seen long before the current cycle. JPMorgan raised its 2026 NII guidance in July, so investors will listen for any update to 2027, and for signs that deposit costs are creeping up. Our earlier coverage of the global bond sell-off explains why long yields have climbed, and the Fed’s dot plot shows why markets expect rates to stay high.
3. Investment banking and the M&A slowdown
Management commentary has diverged. In July, JPMorgan guided investment banking fees and markets revenue up in the “mid-to-high teens” year over year, while Bank of America expected fees to fall by at least 10%, according to one preview. One data provider reports global M&A fell 41% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, although year-to-date volume is still up 28%. That fits the picture in our piece on the record $2.8 trillion M&A boom: fewer, larger deals, which can make fee revenue lumpy.
4. Credit quality
Credit has been calm so far this year. JPMorgan’s second-quarter provision for credit losses was about $2.5 billion, and card losses were guided lower. With rates higher and inflation running hot, analysts will look for any early sign of stress in consumer cards and commercial real estate, even if the results themselves look benign.
5. Expenses and guidance
JPMorgan lifted its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to about $107.5 billion, and Goldman has flagged higher non-compensation costs. Cost discipline is especially in focus at Citigroup, where investors want evidence that restructuring is lifting returns.
How the Stocks Have Traded
Bank stocks have lagged the broader market this year, according to one preview, which also noted that options markets were pricing roughly a 3.6% move in JPMorgan and 4.7% in Goldman after earnings. Closing prices on October 9 were reported at about $333 for JPMorgan, $895 for Goldman, $84 for Wells Fargo and $54 for Bank of America. Those options-implied moves are market estimates and say nothing about direction.
Why This Matters Beyond the Banks
Big-bank results are an early read on the real economy. Loan growth and card spending hint at consumer health, trading and underwriting show how willing investors are to take risk, and deposit trends reveal how much pressure higher rates are putting on household cash. Banks are also a barometer for the technology shift covered in our report on the 21-bank stablecoin consortium, where executives may be asked about digital-asset plans on their earnings calls.
Frequently Asked Questions
When do the big banks report third-quarter earnings?
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup report on Tuesday, October 13, before the market opens. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday, October 14.
Why do EPS estimates differ between sources?
Data providers survey different sets of analysts and update at different times. Goldman Sachs shows an especially wide spread across providers this quarter, so compare results against several consensus figures rather than one.
Do higher interest rates help bank profits?
Not automatically. Higher rates can widen the gap between loan yields and funding costs, but they can also raise deposit costs, create unrealized bond losses and strain borrowers.
Why does trading revenue matter this quarter?
Trading hit a record in the second quarter, so analysts expect a sequential decline. The question is how large the drop is and whether year-over-year growth holds.
Sources
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence (Visible Alpha), October 9, 2026; Admiral Markets Q3 2026 bank earnings preview; INDmoney Q3 2026 US banks earnings preview (WSJ consensus, October 12); HeyGoTrade and FXEmpire earnings calendar, October 12, 2026; Financial Times trading estimate as cited in those previews. Figures were not independently verified against company filings and may change when results are released.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice.
